Suppose $\Pi$ is a decidable decision problem.
Does $\Pi\not \in NP$ imply $\Pi$ is $NP$-Hard?
Edit: if we assume there exists $\Pi\in coNP\setminus NP$ then we are done. Can we refute the claim without any unknown assumptions?
Suppose $\Pi$ is a decidable decision problem.
Does $\Pi\not \in NP$ imply $\Pi$ is $NP$-Hard?
Edit: if we assume there exists $\Pi\in coNP\setminus NP$ then we are done. Can we refute the claim without any unknown assumptions?
If you assume that $\mathsf{NP}\neq\mathsf{coNP}$ then any coNP-complete problem gives a counterexample. I would guess that one can refute your conjecture unconditionally.
If $P=NP$ then
$\Pi \not\in NP$
$\implies$
$P=NP$ and $\Pi$ is neither the empty language nor the full language
$\implies$
$\Pi$ is $NP$-hard.
Let $\operatorname{int}(s)$ denote the result of putting a leading 1 on the most significant end of $s$ and then parsing the result as an integer in binary.
If $P\neq NP$ then for each subset $S$ of $\{0,1\}^*$ that is not in $\operatorname{NTIME}$$\left(2^{O\left(2^n\right)}\right)$,
$\{111 \ldots [2^{\operatorname{int}(n)} \text{ of them}] \ldots 111 : n\in S\}$ is not in NP since $S$ is too hard, is decidable
if and only if $S$ is, and is not NP-hard even with respect to Turing reductions since
for any polynomial bound, there are only polynomially many possibilities for the
subset of that language consisting of the elements that fit within the length bound,
so one could try the search-to-decision reduction with each of them.
Completeness for a class means it is universal for the class, i.e. other problems in the class can be solved using it. If there is a difficult problem in a class then all universal problems for the class will also be difficult. But the reverse does not hold: difficulty does not imply universality. E.g. the fact that a problem cannot be solved in polynomial nondeterministic time does not imply that it is NP-complete (i.e. universal for NP).
For NP: if P=NP all problems except trivial ones will be complete for NP (under Karp reductions). So assume P is a proper subset of NP (or alternatively use a weaker notion of reduction like AC0).
Consider a unary language which is outside NP. (It is an easy exercise to show there are unary languages of arbitrary difficulty.) The language cannot be complete for NP by Mahoney's theorem.