Suppose that $G = (V,E)$ is a 3-regular graph on $n$ vertices and $m$ edges. Below I propose a randomized algorithm for obtaining an independent set for $G$.
Step $1$: Delete each vertex (independently) with $\frac{2}{3}$ probability.
Step $2$: For each remaining edge, delete one of its endvertices.
I want to upper bound the probability that this $2$-step algorithm yields an independent set of size smaller than $\frac{n(1-\varepsilon)}{6}$, where $0 < \varepsilon \leq 1$. My partial attempt is below.
Let $X_1, X_2, \dots, X_n$ be independent Poisson trials satisfying $\textbf{Pr}[X_i = 1] = \frac{1}{3}$. Hence, $X = \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i$ gives us the number of vertices in $G$ that survive Step $1$, and $\textbf{E}[X] = \frac{n}{3}$.
Let $Y_1, Y_2, \dots, Y_m$ likewise be independent Poisson trials satisfying $\textbf{Pr}[Y_i = 1] = \frac{1}{9}$. Hence, $Y = \sum_{i=1}^{m} Y_i$ gives us the number of edges in $G$ that survive Step $1$, and $\textbf{E}[Y] = \frac{n}{6}$.
Thus, $X-Y$ gives us the minimum number of vertices remaining after the algorithm terminates.
Now, the following Chernoff bound seems especially pertinent to this problem, where $Z$ is a sum of independent Poisson trials, $\mu$ is its expectation, and $0 < \delta \leq 1$:
$\textbf{Pr}[Z < (1 - \delta)\mu] < \exp(\frac{-\mu \delta^2}{2})$
Of course, $X-Y$ is a lower bound on the size of the output independent set, but I'm not sure how I can apply the expression to the Chernoff bound. Can $X-Y$ can be conceived as a sum of Poisson indicator variables, which would be required if I wanted to put $X-Y$ in place of $Z$ in the above bound? If so, then it seems to me that I can use this Chernoff bound to derive an upper bound on the probability that the minimum size of the output independent set is smaller than $\frac{n(1-\varepsilon)}{6}$. How can I get from this to my objective: an upper bound on the probability that the actual size of the output independent set is smaller than $\frac{n(1-\varepsilon)}{6}$?