I'm not 100% sure of everything, but here are some elements that are implicit in the proof. Note that I reuse the notations and common knowledge of the paper, therefore this answer isn't self-contained.
First, let's assume that $x \gt y \ge 0$. It's a safe assumption to make because the sign of the variables doesn't matter and swapping $x$ and $y$ only change the sign of the result.
Let's write the relative error for the formula $(x \otimes x) \ominus (y \otimes y)$.
\begin{align}
relerr & =
\frac{\left|(x \otimes x) \ominus (y \otimes y) - (x^2 - y^2)\right|}{\left|x^2 - y^2\right|} \\
& = \left|\frac{(x \otimes x) \ominus (y \otimes y) - (x^2 - y^2)}{x^2 - y^2}\right| \\
& = \left|\frac{(x \otimes x) \ominus (y \otimes y)}{x^2 - y^2} - 1\right| \\
& = \left|\frac{\left[(x^2 - y^2)(1 + \delta_1) + (\delta_1 - \delta_2)y^2\right](1 + \delta_3)}{x^2 - y^2} - 1\right| \\
& = \left|\frac{(\delta_1 - \delta_2)y^2}{x^2 - y^2}(1 + \delta_3) + (1 + \delta_1)(1 + \delta_3) - 1\right| \\
\end{align}
Since we want to bound this expression by some amount of the machine-$\epsilon$, we need to find when the first term is the largest. Which happen to be when $y$ is large, making the numerator large, and when $x$ is close to $y$, making the denominator small. We could probably stop there (as the paper does), but this doesn't provide an upper bound for the relative error.
Let's assume that $x = (1 + \delta_x) y$ with $0 < \delta_x \ll 1$.
\begin{align}
relerr & = \left|\frac{(\delta_1 - \delta_2)y^2}{(1 + \delta_x)^2 y^2 - y^2}(1 + \delta_3) + (1 + \delta_1)(1 + \delta_3) - 1\right| \\
& = \left|\frac{\delta_1 - \delta_2}{(1 + \delta_x)^2 - 1}(1 + \delta_3) + (1 + \delta_1)(1 + \delta_3) - 1\right| \\
& = \left|\frac{\delta_1 - \delta_2}{2 \delta_x + \delta_x^2}(1 + \delta_3) + (1 + \delta_1)(1 + \delta_3) - 1\right| \\
\end{align}
In order to bound this expression, we will need a lower bound on $\delta_x$. It needs to be greater than $0$ so that $x \neq y$ and the equations make sens. The smallest non-zero value it can take is $\delta_x \ge \beta^{-p+1} = 2 \epsilon$.
Moreover we have: $-\epsilon \le \delta_1 \le \epsilon$ and $-\epsilon \le \delta_2 \le \epsilon$.
Therefore, we have:
\begin{align}
\delta_1 - \delta_2 & \le 2 \epsilon \\
2 \delta_x + \delta_x^2 & \ge 4 \epsilon + 4 \epsilon^2 \\
\frac{\delta_1 - \delta_2}{2 \delta_x + \delta_x^2} & \le \frac{2 \epsilon}{4 \epsilon + 4 \epsilon^2} & = \frac{1}{2 + \epsilon} & \lt \frac{1}{2} \\
\end{align}
Hence:
\begin{align}
relerr & \le \left|\frac{\delta_1 - \delta_2}{2 \delta_x + \delta_x^2}(1 + \delta_3)\right| + \left|(1 + \delta_1)(1 + \delta_3) - 1\right| \\
& \lt \frac{1 + \delta_3}{2} + |\delta_1 + \delta_3 + \delta_1 \delta_3| \\
& \lt \frac{1 + 2 \epsilon}{2} + \epsilon + 2 \epsilon + 2 \epsilon^2 \\
& \lt \frac{1}{2} + 4 \epsilon + 2 \epsilon^2 \\
& \lt \frac{1}{2} + 5 \epsilon
\end{align}
Meaning that we could get an answer between 50% and 150% of the true result. I was however unable to find an actual example by exhaustive search in the high numbers.
The best I could find (or worse, depending how you look at it ^^) was:
$$x = 1.340780783004664349 \times 10^{154}$$
$$y = 1.340780783004664051 \times 10^{154}$$
using 64 bit floats (53 bits mantissa). Which has a relative error of roughly $0.25$.
Given that the binary mantissa of these numbers looks pretty regular, there might be something special about them and my upper bound is not correct.
My guess is that when $x$ is the float right after $y$, then maybe the rounding error of $x^2$ is similar to that of $y^2$. Which would make $\delta_1 - \delta_2 \le \epsilon$ instead of $2 \epsilon$. If anyone can prove it, feel free to edit this answer.